Market Research
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October 25, 2021
Quarterly Research Package and Forecast Q3 2021
Top Market Themes for October 2021
COVID-19 and Recovery
- COVID-19 is officially America’s deadliest pandemic.
- 2021 economic growth forecasts revised down due to Delta variant concerns.
- COVID-19 pandemic risks are diverse.
Policy Shifts
- Removal of adverse market fee.
- FHFA amended Preferred Stock Purchase Agreement (PSPA) and Capital Rule.
- Increased focus on affordable housing supply, housing goals, underserved markets and racial equity.
Labor Market Developments
- Labor market recovery from deep recession slowing.
- Plunge in employment has had disproportionate impact on certain states.
Housing Trends
- Purchase activity rebounds as mortgage rates stabilize.
- Home sales remains at 2007 levels amidst inventory constraints.
House Price Appreciation
- High home price increases have led to record homeowner equity.
- Persistently high house price appreciation is affecting affordability.
Forbearance Trends
- Forbearance share declined as many homeowners are nearing the end of their forbearance terms.
- As of mid-August, market active forbearances accounted for 24 percent of all loans that entered the program versus 30 percent the previous quarter.
Third Quarter Forecast Released on October 15, 2021
- The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) is expected to be 3 percent in 2021 and 3.5 percent in 2022. In 2020, the 30-year FRM averaged 3.1 percent.
- House price growth is expected to be 16.9 percent in 2021, slowing to 7 percent in 2022. Growth was 11.3 percent in 2020.
- Home sales are expected to reach 6.8 million in 2021, remaining flat in 2022. Sales were 6.5 million in 2020.
- Purchase originations are expected to increase to $1.9 trillion in 2021 and $2.1 trillion in 2022. This is up from 2020 when purchase originations came in at $1.6 trillion.
- Refinance originations are expected to soften, declining from $2.6 trillion in 2021 to $995 billion in 2022. This is down from $2.9 trillion in 2020.
- Overall, annual mortgage origination levels are expected to be $4.5 trillion in 2021 and $3.1 trillion 2022. These levels were $4.4 trillion in 2020.
