Top Market Themes for April 2021

Freddie Mac’s Single-Family Top Market Themes research package sheds light on current housing trends.

  • Stimulus, Vaccination & Economic Recovery
    • Fiscal and monetary policy support kept the economy afloat.
    • COVID cases are improving and vaccine distribution is picking up.
    • Economic prospects are looking up on vaccines and stimulus.
  • New Housing Trends
    • Intensified migration to Southern and Western Regions.
    • Fewer moves into urban neighborhoods.
    • Increased moves to lower density areas.
  • Housing Affordability on Decline
    • Housing shortage has worsened during the pandemic.
    • There has been double digit house price appreciation posing a risk to affordability.
  • Forbearance Trends
    • Share of loans in forbearance are on decline.
    • Forbearance drove lower housing inventory.
    • Forbearance prevented defaults and foreclosures.

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First Quarter Forecast Released on April 14, 2021

Highlights from the forecast point to a strong housing market in 2021 fueled by record low interest rates and remote work.

  • The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is expected to be 3.2 percent in 2021 and 3.7 percent in 2022.
  • House price growth is expected to be 6.6 percent in 2021, slowing to 4.4 percent in 2022.
  • Home sales are expected to reach 7.1 million in 2021, falling to 6.7 million homes in 2022.
  • Purchase originations are expected to increase to $1.7 trillion in 2021 before dropping to $1.6 trillion in 2022.
  • Refinance originations are expected to be $1.8 trillion in 2021 before falling to $770 billion in 2022.
  • Overall, annual mortgage origination levels are expected to be $3.5 trillion in 2021 and $2.4 trillion 2022.

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